II3050 v2 - Climate Ambition
- Netherlands 2025
- Last updated
• The scenarios presented here are neither an exact prediction of the future nor do they reflect the opinion of the grid operators . Instead they are intended to investigate the impact of different possible developments towards a climate neutral energy system on the energy transport infrastructures. While the developments reflected in the scenarios have been broadly aligned with different stakeholders, alternative choices or variations on certain developments are possible which can be explored in scenario variants.
• The scenario assumptions for the industry sector are to a large extent taken over from the Carbon Transition Model (CTM) which models industrial processes in high detail and has been set-up in alignment with the largest industry parties in the Netherlands. The sectors being affected are chemicals, refineries, fertilizers, steel and waste. For these sectors, final energy demands are shown in ETM but the underlying inputs and assumptions cannot be changed by the user. For more background please consult the scenario documentation (reports).
• All weather dependent profiles follow the climate pattern of the historic climate year 2012 covering different combinations of supply & demand. Accordingly, for this study climate data (e.g. temperature, irradiation, wind profiles) from the Pan European Climate Database (PECD) has been processed and uploaded to the ETM. In addition, specific sectoral demand profiles have been derived from suitable (public) sources to reflect a realistic demand behaviour.
• The ETM is an energy system model covering all relevant energy carriers and end-user sectors for the aim of modelling how energy is being used under different scenarios and to estimate the impact on relevant energy & climate indicators like energy related emissions. However specific aspects like the electricity market, energy exchanges with surrounding countries, the characteristics and the operation of technologies are modelled in a simplified way for the sake of reducing complexity, keeping calculation times low and ensure as much transparency & accessibility to users as possible. Depending on the study and scope, the grid operators apply other more advanced tools e.g. to simulate the European electricity market in more detail and on the requested level of quality.
Scenario Climate Ambition (KA):
The Climate Ambition scenario follows as closely as possible the existing, intended and scheduled climate policy in the Netherlands and is based on the “Klimaat- en energieverkenning” (KEV) 2022 and the Coalition Agreement. The scenario assumes an energetic implementation of the climate programme from the Coalition Agreement, whereby the national government steers forcefully, whereas regional and sectoral developments -such as the Regionale Energie Strategien (RES), Nationaal actieprogramma laadinfrastructuur (NAL) and Cluster Energie Strategien (CES) are also decisive. Where necessary to reach the energy & climate targets, additional policy is being anticipated. The plans and ambitions affect all sectors in the Netherlands, all sectors participate and a broad mix of technologies is being used.