Climate and Energy Outlook 2021 (KEV)

This scenario is the closest possible approach to the 2021 Climate and Energy Outlook (PBL, TNO, CBS and RIVM).

Due to some differences in scope and definitions, it is not possible to compare indicators one-to-one. Read more about this at: https://refman.energytransitionmodel.com/publications/2153

Outline method: Final demand as the edges of the puzzle

We summarise the method as ‘approaching the KEV 2030 VV scenario on 'final demand and story’. The final demand per sector per carrier forms the edges of the puzzle, within which all other puzzle pieces find a place. The translation to an ETM scenario takes place in the following steps:

1. Correcting the KEV 2030 VV energy balance to match the ETM

2. Filling in certain puzzle pieces, which can be found in the KEV documentation. Think of: Number of inhabitants, homes, (hybrid) heat pumps, electric cars, installed capacity of sun, wind, import price curves, etc…

3. Fill in and fill in uncertain puzzle pieces to arrive at the final demand per sector, per carrier.

4. Validation on final demand per sector per carrier.

The documentation of all the assumptions of this ETM scenario can be found here: https://refman.energytransitionmodel.com/publications/2149